Cutting the Future STEM Workforce

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering implementing a $100,000 fee on international students who want to work in the United States after graduation via the optional practical training visa, one of the most common pathways to immigration to the United States. This policy, if implemented, would be the second recent blow to US legal high skilled immigration: earlier this month, the administration changed visa duration rules to add new burdens and uncertainty for international students. Previously, common student visas lasted for the duration of a course of study. Now the visas last up to a maximum of 4 years, with extensions possibly but uncertain and requiring application.

(The trouble is that four years is too short for a PhD. I did mine in five years, which put me on the fast end of my Economics PhD cohort, and the typical STEM PhD takes between 5 and 6 years.)

Collectively, these policies (along with the heightened uncertainty around funding for research) are likely to reduce high skilled immigration from international students. A new report from Amy Nice, Michael Clemons, and Jeremy Neufeld tries to quantify the size of the impact, looking at survey evidence and the historical share of the STEM workforce that follows affected pathways. They estimate that, if these policies had been in place for the twenty years between 2003 and 2023, the US STEM PhD workforce would be 11.5% smaller than it is today. That would mean lower US economic growth (and probably no significant benefits to native-born STEM workers; more here).