The AlphaFold verdict is in
Got your guesses about Alphafold ready? Here’s what Hill and Stein found.
Did experimental (i.e., non-computational) structure determination decline? The rate of experimental structure determination is unchanged, and the relevant papers are still being published in top journals; AlphaFold predictions are complementing rather than replacing experimental research (though Hill & Stein note that this lack of substitution isn’t necessarily efficient, or permanent).
Did basic research shift toward proteins that previously had no structural information? Basic research on previously unsolved proteins is up 15-35% relative to proteins with known structures, with initial shifts taking place in protein function research and more recent (and larger) shifts among expression, disease, and interaction studies.
Did early-stage drug development start targeting those newly solved proteins?There is no corresponding increase in early-stage drug R&D on newly solved proteins vs. previously solved ones (though the authors note that private pharma work would not be captured here).
Overall, it seems that structure was a meaningful bottleneck for basic science, but not the binding one for drug discovery.