Pre-register your AlphaFold predictions

Ryan Hill and Carolyn Stein have a new working paper on how AlphaFold has affected protein structure research in the five years since its release. They ask three primary questions:

1. Did experimental (i.e., non-computational) structure determination decline?

2. Did basic research shift toward proteins that previously had no structural information?

3. Did early-stage drug development start targeting those newly solved proteins?

Pre-register your guesses for each, before reading item #3 for a discussion of what Hill and Stein found.