What forecasters expect from AI by 2050

We at AGF don’t work as directly on AI issues as many of our peers at Coefficient Giving, but you can’t really think about the medium to long-run state of the US and world economies without thinking seriously about AI. I found a big new paper from the Forecasting Research Institute (summary thread here) asking AI experts, economists, “superforecasters,” and the general public to predict AI’s effects on the economy by 2030 and 2050 very helpful in calibrating my own views. Perhaps the most surprising thing to me is that the four groups weren’t terribly far apart from each other. In a world of rapid AI progress, economists expect 3.5 percent GDP growth in 2050; AI experts expect 5.3 percent. This pales next to forecasts of double-digit annual economic growth caused by transformative AI that more optimistic commentators have made. For more, see Matt, Alex, and my follow-up posts on the survey.