Crowdsourcing forecasts on AI and jobs

There are a lot more loose vibes than specific predictions when it comes to AI’s economic impacts these days, which is why I was grateful to see Metaculus, Renaissance Philanthropy, and the Schultz Family Foundation collaborate on a forecasting project on this topic. The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub collects the whole Metaculus community’s predictions on everything from the outlook of specific jobs (nursing seems like it’ll continue to do well) to the outlook of specific US states (Washington state looks like it’ll do okay, despite Microsoft and Amazon’s vulnerability to tech layoffs.) I expect the forecasts to be wrong a lot, but I appreciate the clarity with which they’re being made.