Remember data centers in space?

(...probably). Semianalysis is out with a comprehensive comparative analysis of the costs and uncertainties around space-based datacenters, arguing that while technical, operational, and cost barriers mean that space-based data centers start out at at least 4x earth-based costs, we shouldn’t completely discount the idea. They’re not exactly bullish on timing, though – in their base case, space doesn't reach cost parity with earth until ~2040, driven by falling launch and hardware costs. Even then, space would be a genuine necessity only if earth-based data centers have exhausted all potential capacity from grid supply, BTM generation, converted bitcoin mining, and industrial capacity/manpower to build additional infrastructure, which their base case doesn’t show happening at a meaningful scale through the middle of the century. However, what’s interesting is how quickly regulatory barriers (and capacity barriers dressed up as regulatory barriers) could potentially start to bite – by the early 2030s, space-based data centers could be running at only a ~30% premium, easily in the range where permitting and regulatory barriers become the deciding factor on whether to launch if earth-based capacity remains artificially constrained. Depending on how fast we solve some of the technical hurdles that currently make space-based centers a financial non-starter – as well as the universal constraint on chip deployment anywhere, semiconductor production – political will could end up being of central importance, making the most important argument for space…well, the space (and even that is limited by narrow orbital regimes!).